Japan and China: A Shift in the Balance of Power?

While the years since the financial crisis have accelerated the long-term swing in the global balance of power from East to West, they have also seen a realignment of power within the region. Asia’s dominant economy in the second half of the 20^th century, Japan has been hit hard by the global downturn, and its universities are struggling to keep up with the pace of change in the region.

During the last five years, China has overtaken Japan as the world’s second largest economy behind the US. In the past 20 years it has also revolutionized its higher education system, with an unprecedented expansion in participation and concerted efforts to create its own Ivy League, the ‘C9 League’. 

China’s economy continues to expand rapidly, and with it its spending power. Central Intelligence Agency figures place China sixth in the world for annual growth in 2011, at 9.5% - a remarkable figure given its huge size. For context, the US and UK managed 1.5% and 1.1% respectively in that time period, and Japan’s economy contracted by 0.5%.

This increased spending power has facilitated a boom in scientific research. China doubled its main scientific research budget between 2009 and 2011, and production of published research papers rose from just under 200,000 in 2006 to more than 330,000 in 2010.

China still has numerous challenges to overcome, not least a lack of the sort of international engagement that has facilitated the rise of universities in Hong Kong and Singapore. Though research volume has grown exponentially, this has yet to translate into work that is highly cited on a global scale.

Yet even with these ongoing issues, China’s universities may still be on the way to emulating the performance of Japan sooner rather than later.

Japan’s top institution, the University of Tokyo, drops one place in this year’s QS University Rankings: Asia to ninth, having ranked third in the inaugural edition in 2009. In the same period, China’s leading institution has moved in the opposite direction. The University of Tokyo ranked seven places higher than the University of Peking in 2009, yet sits three places behind it this year.

This trend is replicated on a national level. Though Japan still has more institutions than China in the top 200, the gap has shrunk from 17 in 2011, to just three this year.

Japan still has a far greater number of regionally elite universities than China, with seven making the top 20 compared to China’s two. Yet the contrast between Japan’s performance in 2009 and 2013 remains stark. Its representation in the top 20 has dropped from nine to seven, and its top five universities have dropped an average of five places each.

While Japan has long been Asia’s higher education powerhouse, the rapid development of Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and Mainland China are making that position look increasingly precarious.